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Empirical studies of China's imports and world trade

Authors Fukumoto, Mayumi
Issue Date 2011
Summary This thesis attempted to make an empirical contribution to international trade focusing on the Asia-pacific region. Chapter 1 examined the effects of China’s economic growth on current account by analyzing China’s disaggregate import demand function. The results showed that as China switches from exports to domestic demand as a key driver for economic growth, China’s trade surplus would be expected to shrink rather quickly. Chapter 2 analyzed the effects of China’s rising demand of minerals on Australia’s mineral exports to China. Based on two market structures, i.e., monopoly and Bertrand duopoly, theoretical models of export demand and supply were derived. Structural models were estimated using three stage least squares, and the results showed that one percent increase in China’s economic activity will raise export demand of Australia and Brazil more than one percent. Moreover, empirical estimates showed that Bertrand duopoly best describes the markets. Simulation results indicated that the new Minerals Resource Rent Tax will decrease Australia’s export price by about 13.4 percent while Brazil’s export price only falls by 4.06 percent. Australia’s export quantities increase by 4.37 percent but Brazil’s export quantities seem unchanged. Chapter 3 posed a novel question about theoretical derivation of the gravity model which assumes that a country’s export is produced entirely domestically. In the world of production sharing and multinational firms often referred as vertical specialization, this assumption seems unrealistic. Thus, the gravity equation was estimated for both gross value of exports and domestic value-added of exports as dependent variable for four categories of goods and compared results. Among Asian economies, results showed that both primary goods and intermediate goods were demand driven with gross value of exports and the results are consistent with high GL samples. This study gives some reassurance to the continued use of gross value of exports in the estimation of the gravity equation.
Note Thesis (Ph.D.)--Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, 2011
Language English
Format Thesis
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